Olimpia Milano vs Virtus Bologna

Derby game of Italian basketball league. Milano at home against Virtus. I believe the host is the right side and this -4.5 pts spread seems to me as short. Firstly, in this Head to head, in high percentage the home court play decisive role. Secondly, current form is way on the side of Milano who is in five games winning streak in EUROLEAGUE. They are also 5-0 in EUROLEAGUE in past five home games. One of those was exactly against Virtus. The guests fired head coach but I doubt the coach change will help them.